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 270 
 WTNT44 KNHC 252034
 TCDAT4
  
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
 500 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012
  
 SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TONY
 REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO OVER 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
 SHEAR.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN LOSING
 DEFINITION AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SEPARATES FARTHER FROM
 THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
 LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS. GIVEN THE DECAYING STRUCTURE OF THE
 CYCLONE...TONY IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS
 ADVISORY. POST-TROPICAL TONY SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
 BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
 THE HEADING OF TONY HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/19. TONY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST-
 NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
 OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE BEFORE
 LOSING ITS IDENTITY. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO BUT AGAIN SOUTH
 OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/2100Z 31.2N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  26/0600Z 31.8N  31.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  26/1800Z 32.5N  28.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  27/0600Z 33.2N  25.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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