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 934 
 WTNT44 KNHC 251434
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
 1100 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TONY HAS DETERIORATED SINCE LAST
 NIGHT.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST
 OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION  DUE TO NEARLY 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
 SHEAR.  THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THE
 TYPICAL BAROCLINIC LEAF...SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
 NEARLY COMPLETE. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED UPON A
 BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  EVEN STRONGER SHEAR
 AND MUCH COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
 WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  TONY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
 BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE
 NEXT FEW DAYS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/20. EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER
 OF WESTERLY FLOW...TONY IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON AN
 EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
 UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
 ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/1500Z 31.0N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 31.6N  33.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  26/1200Z 32.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  27/0000Z 33.2N  27.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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