448 
 WTNT44 KNHC 240244
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012
  
 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
 BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE
 LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE BANDING
 FEATURES ARE NOW BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
 T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST ADT VALUES FROM
 UW-CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE
 INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 35 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE
 TROPICAL STORM TONY.
  
 TONY ONLY HAS A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN. THE STORM IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
 SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS
 FORECAST TO TRACK OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
 THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO LEVEL OFF IN
 INTENSITY. A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
 N MI NORTHWEST OF TONY IS ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT OR MERGE WITH THE
 SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS THEREFORE
 SHOWN AT 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATION IS NOW PREDICTED TO OCCUR BY
 DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.
  
 THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW BETWEEN
 AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE
 PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING
 TONY TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE MORE ZONAL
 FLOW. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST IN A FEW DAYS AS THE
 FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND A LARGER
 EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE NHC TRACK
 FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE
 GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
  
 THE 12-FT SEAS DENOTED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY ARE THE RESULT OF
 WIND WAVES GENERATED BY TONY INTERACTING WITH SWELL FROM THE
 NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/0300Z 26.7N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  24/1200Z 27.7N  47.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  25/0000Z 28.8N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  25/1200Z 29.9N  41.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  26/0000Z 31.1N  38.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  27/0000Z 35.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI