040 
 WTNT41 KNHC 071441
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
 1100 AM AST SUN NOV 07 2010
  
 TOMAS HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS WITHERED AWAY...DUE TO ABOUT 35 KT OF WESTERLY
 SHEAR...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEAR
 THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT...BASED
 ON A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES AND WIND REPORTS FROM BUOY 41047.  TOMAS ALSO APPEARS TO
 BE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  SATELLITE IMAGES
 SHOW COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
 SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST
 THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  THE
 GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING FURTHER...TO NEAR
 50 KT IN 12 HOURS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE
 HUMIDITIES BELOW 40 PERCENT...AND COOL WATERS SHOULD CAUSE
 TOMAS TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
  
 AN 0624 UTC AMSU OVERPASS AND A 1014 UTC SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE THAT
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 50 N MI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
 ESTIMATE.  THESE DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT TOMAS HAS SLOWED DOWN
 SUBSTANTIALLY AND TURNED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...
 RESULTING IN AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 005/5.  THE CYCLONE IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST
 WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...TO THE SOUTH AND
 SOUTHEAST OF A STRENGTHENING LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH
 ATLANTIC. THIS MUCH LARGER LOW SHOULD ABSORB WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
 TOMAS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/1500Z 26.0N  69.6W    50 KT
  12HR VT     08/0000Z 26.4N  68.7W    45 KT...POST-TROPICAL
  24HR VT     08/1200Z 26.9N  66.5W    35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
  36HR VT     09/0000Z 27.9N  63.9W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48HR VT     09/1200Z 30.0N  61.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     10/1200Z 36.0N  57.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI