928 
 WTNT41 KNHC 062051
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
 500 PM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010
  
 TOMAS HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY AN
 EYE MAY HAVE TRIED TO FORM.  A PARTIAL EYEWALL WAS ALSO PRESENT IN
 THE 1743Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...
 HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND THE CONVECTIVE
 STRUCTURE IS SHOWING LESS BANDING CHARACTERISTICS.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF
 TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.
  
 DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41046 INDICATES THAT THE STRONG COLD FRONT
 OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS NOW IMPACTING THE OUTER
 CIRCULATION OF TOMAS.  WIND...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINT
 OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY SHOWED THAT THE FRONT HAS REACHED THAT
 LOCATION.  THE INNER CORE OF TOMAS APPEARS...FOR THE MOMENT...TO BE
 UNAFFECTED BY THE COOLER/DRIER AIR.  IT IS LIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL
 SOON BEGIN ITS FINAL DEMISE WITH BOTH THE FRONTAL AIRMASS AND
 INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE.  THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT BELOW BOTH THE INTENSITY MODEL
 CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD DROP BELOW
 TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AFTER 48 H...BUT COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF
 THE ANTICIPATED VERY STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR REMOVES ALL OF THE
 DEEP CONVECTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TOMAS COULD UNDERGO
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INSTEAD OF DEGENERATION...ESPECIALLY IF IT
 GOES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND MORE STRONGLY INTERACTS WITH A
 BAROCLINIC LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
  
 TOMAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING 30/13...AS IT IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED
 BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CYCLONE
 SHOULD RATHER ABRUPTLY DECELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST IN ABOUT
 12-24 H...ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS EITHER DECOUPLED FROM THE
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR COMPLETELY ELIMINATED.  THEREAFTER...THE
 SYSTEM SHOULD BE ADVECTED TOWARD THE EAST AND THEN THE NORTHEAST BY
 THE LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FARTHER NORTH AND
 FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS QUICK AS THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/2100Z 24.2N  70.0W    55 KT
  12HR VT     07/0600Z 25.2N  69.3W    50 KT
  24HR VT     07/1800Z 25.6N  68.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     08/0600Z 25.8N  67.2W    40 KT
  48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  64.9W    35 KT
  72HR VT     09/1800Z 28.5N  59.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     10/1800Z 31.5N  55.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN