954 
 WTNT41 KNHC 051505
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
 1100 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
 
 BEFORE IT DEPARTED TOMAS...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
 AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN SLIGHTLY TO
 987 MB.  HOWEVER...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS STILL SUPPORTED
 AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE
 RAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA...POSSIBLY DUE
 TO THE CIRCULATION OF TOMAS INTERACTING WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF
 HISPANIOLA.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER THE
 NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/10.  TOMAS IS TO THE EAST OF A STRONG
 DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
 EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  FOR THE NEXT
 36-48 HR...THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY
 NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
 THE DIRECTION OF MOTION...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED
 BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS/GFDL/HWRF AND THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS. 
 THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE TO THE
 LEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE.  AFTER 36-48 HR...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
 IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...WHICH APPEAR
 TO SHEAR TOMAS APART...SHOW A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF 25N. 
 THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF MOVE TOMAS MUCH MORE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH OR
 NORTHEAST AND ABSORB IT INTO THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEMS OVER THE
 WESTERN ATLANTIC.   THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN...SHOWING AN EASTWARD
 TURN FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES SOUTH OF
 THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS
 AND THE ECMWF...AND SHOWS A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THE THE ECMWF. 
 THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.
  
 TOMAS STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HR IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
 ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT INTERACTION WITH
 HISPANIOLA COULD SLOW OR HALT DEVELOPMENT.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND
 GFDL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE IN
 24 HR...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT.  AFTER
 THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER HOSTILE ENOUGH
 CONDITIONS TO CAUSE WEAKENING REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT
 TAKES...AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 IN SHOWING A QUICK WEAKENING.  THE FINAL DEMISE OF TOMAS IS
 DEPENDENT UPON ITS TRACK...AS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION WOULD LIKELY
 LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND A MORE EASTWARD MOTION TO
 DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW.  THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO USE
 THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.
  
 REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
 SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
 HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-
 THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
 REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/1500Z 19.1N  74.4W    75 KT
  12HR VT     06/0000Z 20.8N  73.4W    80 KT
  24HR VT     06/1200Z 23.1N  72.1W    90 KT
  36HR VT     07/0000Z 25.1N  71.0W    80 KT
  48HR VT     07/1200Z 26.0N  69.9W    65 KT
  72HR VT     08/1200Z 27.5N  67.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     09/1200Z 28.0N  64.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120HR VT     10/1200Z 29.0N  62.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN