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 621 
 WTNT41 KNHC 040841
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
 500 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
  
 SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF TOMAS HAS NOT
 CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...
 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
 THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 997 MB WITH MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS
 OF 41 KT.  DESPITE THE AIRCRAFT DATA WHICH ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT
 STRENGTHENING...THE VORTEX HAS BEEN TILTED IN THE VERTICAL BASED
 UPON  COMPARISON OF EARLIER NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT DATA.
 GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE AIRCRAFT...
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 330/06.  THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
 REGARDING THE TRACK OF TOMAS IS UNCHANGED.  TOMAS SHOULD BE STEERED
 NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY.  AFTER THAT...TOMAS
 SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
 ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
 MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD WHILE
 ACCELERATING.  EVEN THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED
 FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
 TO THE LEFT ON ACCOUNT OF THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES.
  
 ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FACTORS OF MODERATELY LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS
 ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TOMAS...THE VERTICAL
 TILT OF THE VORTEX AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION MAY
 ARGUE AGAINST A RAPID INCREASE IN STRENGTH.  INTERESTINGLY...THE
 SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT HAD BEEN SHOWING THE
 POTENTIAL FOR A 30-KT INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOT AS
 HIGH AS IT WAS BEFORE.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE AND ASSUMES THAT THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
 CONDUCIVE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR STENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36
 HOURS.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...STRONG AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
 OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO CAUSE WEAKENING...PERHAPS
 AT A MORE RAPID PACE THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.  THE
 NEW NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT LATER FORECAST
 TIMES GIVEN THE STRONG FORECAST SHEAR.
  
 REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
 SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...
 WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES
 OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0900Z 15.8N  76.1W    45 KT
  12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N  76.0W    55 KT
  24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.8N  75.0W    65 KT
  36HR VT     05/1800Z 21.0N  73.4W    65 KT
  48HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N  71.5W    55 KT
  72HR VT     07/0600Z 26.0N  69.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     08/0600Z 28.0N  67.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     09/0600Z 28.0N  65.0W    25 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
  
 
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