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 126 
 WTNT41 KNHC 011438
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
 1100 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010
  
 TOMAS IS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
 DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
 CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY
 FORMED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
 TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST
 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/12. A GENERAL WESTWARD
 HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
 EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS
 ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW OR TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
 GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THIS
 OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
 WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THEN CAUSE TOMAS TO TURN TOWARD
 THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL
 GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...MAINLY DUE TO THE
 RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IT ENDS UP ON THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
  
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD CAUSE
 A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT
 TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC
 AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING.  ALL OF
 THE GUIDANCE SHOWS TOMAS RE-INTENSIFYING...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48
 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME. THE NEW WIND
 SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
 INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 13.6N  68.7W    40 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 13.7N  70.3W    35 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.8N  72.1W    35 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N  73.3W    40 KT
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 14.3N  74.2W    45 KT
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 15.2N  74.8W    55 KT
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 17.5N  74.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  71.5W    65 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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