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 700 
 WTNT41 KNHC 300849
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
 500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TOMAS HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT. AN
 EARLIER GAP IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS FILLED IN
 ...AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT. ALSO...IMAGERY FROM THE RADAR
 ON MARTINIQUE AND A 0624 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGEST THAT AN EYEWALL
 MAY BE FORMING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 RAISED TO 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
 SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS LATER THIS MORNING TO GET BETTER
 INFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. DURING
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
 INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID INTENSITY INDEX
 SHOWS A NEARLY 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25-KT INCREASE IN 24 HOURS.
 BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL...BASED ON GFS MODEL FIELDS...
 SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE
 RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR MAY
 RELAX AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL
 FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE RELIABLE
 INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
  
 THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE RECENT TRMM PASS...AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
 FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A
 MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC 
 LIFTS OUT...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF TOMAS...WHICH
 SHOULD IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72
 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH
 MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING IN
 THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE A
 DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND POTENTIALLY A
 NORTHWARD TURN. THE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD WITH
 THIS CYCLE...BUT THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS WHICH REMAIN
 FARTHER SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS QUITE SLOW
 DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE
 POTENTIAL NORTHWARD TURN.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0900Z 12.9N  59.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.5N  61.3W    70 KT
  24HR VT     31/0600Z 14.1N  63.7W    80 KT
  36HR VT     31/1800Z 14.6N  65.9W    85 KT
  48HR VT     01/0600Z 15.1N  68.1W    90 KT
  72HR VT     02/0600Z 15.5N  71.5W    90 KT
  96HR VT     03/0600Z 16.0N  73.5W   100 KT
 120HR VT     04/0600Z 16.5N  74.5W   100 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
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