413 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 032032
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102010
 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010
  
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
 MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME
 APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A
 1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN
 THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
 SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.
 THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
 DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...
 STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
 SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
 HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM
 MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.
 
 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE
 MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
 FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. 
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W    30 KT
  12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W    30 KT
  24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W    25 KT
  36HR VT     05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48HR VT     05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
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