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 021 
 WTNT45 KNHC 262031
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011
 500 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2011
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS BARELY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.  THE
 CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS QUITE ELONGATED...WITH SEVERAL
 SMALLER SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.  CONVECTION HAS
 DIMINISHED AS WELL AND LIES FAR TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE
 INITIAL WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS FROM
 TAFB/SAB...BUT MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  
 
 THE CENTER HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON
 VISIBLE IMAGES...GIVING A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 315/6.  THIS
 GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
 THE DEPRESSION MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A
 LEFTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW
 SYSTEM.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...MOSTLY BECAUSE
 OF THE CENTER RELOCATION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THIS CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH COOLER
 SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
 INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE CYCLONE
 SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
 BECOMING MORE HOSTILE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL AND DYNAMICAL
 MODEL FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
 A FEW DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL IF IT
 DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/2100Z 15.6N  34.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 16.3N  34.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 17.2N  35.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 18.1N  36.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  28/1800Z 18.8N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  29/1800Z 20.0N  40.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
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