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 705 
 WTNT45 KNHC 212031
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102007
 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007
  
 THE BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS LARGELY
 DISSIPATED...WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER HAS INCREASED...
 ALBEIT MODESTLY.  ADDITIONAL SATELLITE...BUOY...AND RECONNAISSANCE
 OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT A SINGLE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER EXISTS.  IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
 THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS SEPARATING FROM THE UPPER-LOW.
 CONSEQUENTLY...THE STATUS OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW JUDGED TO BE
 TROPICAL.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY TODAY.
 EARLIER FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA IN THE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
 SUGGESTED WINDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ALTHOUGH
 DROPSONDES IN THE BAND DID NOT INDICATE THAT MUCH WIND.  IN ANY
 EVENT...THE BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KT.
  
 BASED ON TODAY'S AIRCRAFT FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
 300/8.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...WITH THE
 DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
 SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
 NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A
 LANDFALL LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.  AFTER LANDFALL...AS
 THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
 TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.
  
 THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION NOW IS LIGHT EASTERLY BUT NOT
 VERY DIFLUENT.  WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE CORE AND LIMITED
 UPPER-AIR SUPPORT...IT WOULD NOT SEEM AS THOUGH MUCH
 INTENSIFICATION IS IN ORDER PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ALL THE OBJECTIVE
 GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AS A WEAK
 TROPICAL STORM.  IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
 THE FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD REMAIN OVER WATER LONGER THAN
 FORECAST...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER
 THAN FORECAST.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/2100Z 29.9N  86.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     22/0600Z 30.3N  87.6W    35 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     22/1800Z 30.7N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     23/0600Z 31.5N  92.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 
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