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 554 
 WTNT45 KNHC 211503
 TCDAT5
 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102007
 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007
  
 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF HAS
 GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
 WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTERMITTENT
 CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
 PRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE
 POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...
 ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.  AN
 AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED A SMALL
 CIRCULATION CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF APALACHICOLA...BUT
 BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER-SCALE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER
 SOUTH.  THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AS WELL
 AS THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW ALOFT...PROVIDE THE RATIONALE FOR A
 SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
 PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
 DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
 COASTLINE.   MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  BECAUSE THE
 FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A LANDFALL
 LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT IN ANY EVENT THE CENTER OF A
 SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT.  MOST OF THE WEATHER
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS WELL-DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.
 
 THE UPPER-LOW IS FRAGMENTING...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY SLIDING
 SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
 LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE FLOW OF
 RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
 SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ITS POOR ORGANIZATION...SHOULD PREVENT
 EXCESSIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THE TROPICAL INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW
 DEVELOPMENT TO A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE GLOBAL
 MODELS...WHICH MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE TO THIS SITUATION...
 FORECAST LITTLE STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A
 COMPROMISE AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS.  
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/1500Z 29.2N  85.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     22/0000Z 29.7N  86.6W    35 KT
  24HR VT     22/1200Z 30.1N  88.1W    40 KT
  36HR VT     23/0000Z 30.6N  90.3W    40 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     23/1200Z 31.5N  93.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 
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