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 599 
 WTNT45 KNHC 091432
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004
  
 STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STRIPPED THE DEPRESSION OF ALL DEEP
 CONVECTION...AND THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE
 DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
 REVERSE IN A DAY OR SO IT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG IN MAGNITUDE...AND
 WITH THE SYSTEM OVER 25C WATER IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING
 CONVECTION EXCEPT IN SHORT SPURTS.  DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
 THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/5...AND
 IT WILL PROBABLY SLOW FURTHER NOW THAT IT IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE REMNANT CLOUD SWIRL WILL
 BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD
 NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
 WITH THE GFDL.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/1500Z 36.6N  33.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     10/0000Z 37.0N  32.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     10/1200Z 37.0N  31.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     11/0000Z 36.5N  31.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     11/1200Z 36.0N  31.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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