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 574 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 162033
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Depression Tara Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
 
 Interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico,
 along with some modest southeasterly wind shear and drier mid-level
 air, have combined to weaken tiny Tara. The tropical cyclone still
 has a tight spiral convective banding signature in recent microwave
 imagery. However, the northern portion of the small circulation
 is clearly interacting with the coastal mountains, and surface
 observations from Manzanillo, Mexico (MMZO) since 1500Z have
 indicated a veering wind from northeast to southeast at a steady 20
 kt. The position and intensity were based in part on the MMZO
 observations and a 1541Z ScatSat pass, but mainly on a 1630Z AMSU
 microwave satellite overpass.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 325/02 kt. Surface wind direction
 data from MMZO indicate that Tara passed west of that station's
 longitude around 1530Z. Visible and scatterometer satellite data
 indicate that a surface/low-level trough lies northwest-to-southeast
 just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, and the tiny
 tropical cyclone is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the
 trough axis for the next 12-24 hours as per most of the new 12Z
 global models. The HWRF hangs on to a weak low until about 48 hours
 or so, with dissipation occurring quickly thereafter. The official
 forecast lies between these two scenarios, keeping Tara as a remnant
 low through 36 hours. However, if the small cyclone doesn't move
 away from Mexico within the next 12 hours, then degeneration into a
 remnant low and eventual dissipation could occur sooner than
 forecast due to continued intrusions of drier mid-level air and
 interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico.
 
 Regardless of the exact track or intensity of Tara or its remnants,
 heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the immediate
 coast of southwestern Mexico for the next day or so due to the
 system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash flooding will be
 possible in mountainous areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/2100Z 19.0N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/1800Z 19.5N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  18/0600Z 19.7N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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