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 239 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 161443
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   9
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
 
 A surge of moderate to strong southeasterly wind shear early this
 morning decapitated Tara, with the original upper-level circulation
 now displaced more than 100 nmi to the north or just east of Puerto
 Vallarta. Convection waned considerably as a result of the shear and
 decoupling of the low- and upper-level circulations, but
 thunderstorm activity has made a little bit of comeback over the
 past few hours. However, the decoupling likely resulted in
 significant weakening of the tiny tropical storm, so the intensity
 has been lowered to 40 kt, which is slightly higher than the 35-kt
 winds noted in an earlier ScatSat scatterometer overpass.
 
 The initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 335/01 kt. Data
 from a recent 1035Z SSMI/S overpass suggest that Tara hasn't moved
 much, if at all, during the past 12 hours. The first few visible
 satellite images also indicate this, and that Tara may just be a
 small swirl embedded within a northwest-to-southeast elongated
 trough. For now, the system is being maintained as a tiny tropical
 cyclone that is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the
 aforementioned surface trough axis. Almost all of the model guidance
 with the exception of the HWRF and NAVGEM models dissipate the
 cyclone in 24-36 hours, so the forecast track beyond 24 hours leans
 heavily on continuity with the previous advisory track, along with
 some input from the HWRF model. However, it is quite possible that
 Tara could dissipate sooner than indicated.
 
 The vertical shear is forecast to weaken to less than 10 kt in 12-18
 hours, but there may not be enough of a circulation remaining at
 that time to take advantage of the improving environment. Intrusions
 of dry mid-level air along with some interaction with the
 mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico are expected to override
 the favorable wind shear environment, causing Tara to weaken to a
 depression within 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low
 pressure system by 36 hours. However, weakening could occur more
 rapidly than forecast due to the recent loss of vertically
 structure.
 
 Regardless of the exact track or intensity of Tara or its remnants,
 heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the immediate
 coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
 life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
 areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/1500Z 18.6N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 18.9N 104.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 19.2N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/1200Z 19.7N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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