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 716 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 160841
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
 
 An AMSU microwave overpass after the release of the previous
 advisory suggests that Tara is a little less organized than before.
 The image showed that the center of the small tropical cyclone was
 located near the southeastern portion of a curved convective band,
 but it was not as tightly coiled as before.  Conventional satellite
 imagery has also revealed an overall decrease in the area of deep
 convection and size of the cold clouds tops overnight.  Based on
 these trends, the initial intensity is reduced to 50 kt, which is
 a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications.
 
 The track and intensity forecasts remain quite challenging this
 morning.  It appears that southeasterly shear and the interaction of
 the circulation with the high terrain of southwestern Mexico have
 caused weakening overnight.  As the system moves closer to the
 coast, additional weakening is predicted, and the NHC forecast
 calls for a gradual decrease in intensity over the next few days.
 It is possible that Tara will weaken and dissipate much sooner than
 shown below if the small tropical cyclone moves inland or is so
 close to the coast that the circulation becomes disrupted by the
 mountainous terrain.  The latter is the scenario favored by most
 of the typically reliable dynamical model guidance.
 
 Satellite fixes indicate that Tara continues to inch closer to the
 coast of southwestern Mexico, and the somewhat uncertain initial
 motion estimate is north-northwest or 335 degrees at 2 kt.  The
 latest runs of the global models once again either bring Tara
 inland over Mexico today or show it dissipating near the
 southwestern coast of Mexico within the next day or so.  As a
 result, the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted northward and
 brings the center of Tara very close to the coast within the next
 12 to 24 hours.  Out of respect for continuity of the previous
 advisories, the new NHC forecast keeps Tara meandering near
 southwestern Mexico through 72 hours, but it is possible
 that the storm will weaken and dissipate much sooner. Regardless of
 the exact track or intensity of Tara, heavy rainfall will continue
 to be a threat along the coast of southwestern Mexico due to the
 system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash flooding will be
 possible in mountainous areas.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0900Z 18.7N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  16/1800Z 19.1N 104.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  17/0600Z 19.5N 105.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  17/1800Z 19.9N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  18/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  19/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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