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 550 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 160233
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018
 
 A high-resolution GCOM microwave pass from 2030 UTC revealed that
 Tara remains a tiny tropical cyclone, but it has also developed
 tightly coiled convective bands which could not be observed in
 convectional satellite imagery alone.  With this improved
 structure, TAFB's Dvorak estimate, the ADT estimate, and SATCON all
 increased to 55 kt, and that is set as the initial intensity on
 this advisory.
 
 The GCOM pass also indicated that Tara's center has moved closer to
 the coast of Mexico, albeit slowly, and the initial motion estimate
 is northwestward, or 325/2 kt.  Tara's future track has become less
 clear, and the NHC track forecast is of very low confidence.  The
 most reliable global models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models)
 either bring Tara inland over Mexico or have the system dissipating
 just offshore during the next couple of days, and as a result, there
 were very few model trackers to follow when making the forecast.
 Using what little vorticity can be followed in the global model
 fields, the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward,
 closer to the coast of Mexico.  This new forecast has Tara's small
 tropical-storm-force wind field grazing the coast of Colima and
 Jalisco within the next 12-24 hours, and since there's also a
 possibility that the center will move inland, the government of
 Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo to Cabo
 Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
 Due to Tara's small size, continued intensification is possible.
 However, moderate southeasterly shear is forecast to continue for
 the next 24 hours, and as a result, the NHC forecast holds the
 intensity at 55 kt for the next day or two.  After 24 hours, the
 shear vector begins to turn more southerly and southwesterly, which
 will likely allow drier air to entrain into the circulation.  And,
 that all assumes that Tara will not have moved inland by that time.
 Based on these environmental factors, and the fact that the models
 are now showing the circulation dissipating much sooner, the
 new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast at
 48 hours and beyond, showing Tara becoming a remnant low by day 4
 and dissipating by day 5.
 
 Heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the coast of
 southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
 life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
 areas.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0300Z 18.4N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  16/1200Z 18.7N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  17/0000Z 19.0N 105.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  17/1200Z 19.1N 106.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  19/0000Z 18.9N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  20/0000Z 18.5N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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