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 187 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 151432
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018
 
 Tara remains a small, sheared tropical cyclone with convection
 continuing to go through bursting phases near the low-level center.
 Extremely cold overshooting cloud tops of -90C to -95C have been
 occurring just north of the center during the past couple of hours,
 and the convective cloud shield has gradually been expanding
 southeastward over the center. Satellite intensity estimates are
 T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and the most recent
 objective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS was T3.1/47 kt. Based on these
 data, the intensity is conservatively raised to 40 kt.
 
 The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/01 kt. Tara is
 expected to only drift toward the west-northwest or northwest for
 the next couple of days while the small cyclone remains embedded in
 weak steering currents. The GFS and UKMET models move Tara inland
 just west of Manzanillo, Mexico, in 36-48 hours, whereas the ECMWF,
 GFS-FV3, HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and Canadian models keep the center
 offshore. For now, the official forecast track follows the consensus
 models TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE, keeping the center offshore the
 southwestern coast of Mexico since there appears to be no
 significant steering mechanism to force the circulation onshore for
 the next couple of days. After 48 hours, the ridge to the north of
 Tara is forecast to build westward across central Mexico, forcing
 the cyclone on a west-northwestward track at a slightly faster
 forward speed. However, due to continued large spread in the
 guidance, the track forecast is of low confidence.
 
 Moderate easterly to southeasterly shear is forecast by the models
 to affect Tara for the next 24 hours or so. By 36 hours, the shear
 is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt and remain low until 72
 hours, which should allow for some modest strengthening to occur...
 assuming the center remains offshore. The small circulation, low
 vertical wind shear conditions, and warm ocean temperatures near 30C
 would typically result in more significant strengthening, but
 proximity to land and a dry surrounding environment is expected to
 temper the intensification process somewhat. By days 4 and 5,
 southwesterly shear forecast to increase to around 20 kt should is
 expected to induce some slight weakening. The official intensity
 forecast is similar to but slightly higher than the consensus models
 HCCA, IVCN, and FSSE, and maintains continuity with the previous
 forecast.
 
 Regardless of how close Tara comes to southwestern Mexico, heavy
 rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of southwestern
 Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash
 flooding will be possible in mountainous areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/1500Z 17.6N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z 17.8N 104.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  16/1200Z 17.9N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  17/0000Z 17.9N 105.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  17/1200Z 18.0N 105.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  18/1200Z 18.4N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  19/1200Z 18.9N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  20/1200Z 19.0N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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