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 267 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 142033
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
 
 Although convective activity has decreased since the previous
 advisory, good cyclonic rotation is noted in the small convective
 elements, and an upper-level anticyclone has developed over the
 low-level center based on weak cirrus outflow now occuring in all
 quadrants. A fortuitous ship located about 30 nmi west of the
 center at 1800Z reported a 30-kt northerly wind and 1010.7 mb
 pressure, which helped to locate the center, and also to estimate
 the intensity and central pressure of the depression. The initial
 intensity therefore remains 30 kt, which is supported by a satellite
 intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and a 1542Z ScatSat pass.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. The latest model guidance
 continues the previous motion trend by only moving the cyclone
 slowly westward to west-southwestward at less than 5 kt for the next
 few days due to the depression remaining embedded within a break in
 a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends southwestward from
 central Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A broad upper-level trough
 and low located over the southwestern United States is forecast to
 weaken and lift out slowly to the northeast on days 4 and 5, which
 will allow the ridge to gradually build westward to the north of the
 cyclone. This should result in an increase in the easterly flow
 south of the ridge, helping to nudge the cyclone westward at a
 slightly faster forward speed. The new NHC forecast track is a
 little north of the previous advisory track after 48 h, and lies
 between the consensus models TVCE and HCCA.
 
 The cyclone is forecast to be embedded within an environment that is
 somewhat conducive for at least gradual strengthening to occur. The
 cyclone's small circulation and a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of
 only 25-30 nmi would suggest that rapid intensification could
 occur since the wind shear is expected to decrease to around 5 kt
 after 36 hours. However, proximity to land is expected to
 continue to disrupt the outer circulation and also create downslope
 conditions off the coastal mountains, which will produce occasional
 intrusions of dry air. The result is that only modest strengthening
 is forecast for the next 5 days, and the official intensity
 forecast is similar to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity
 consensus models.
 
 The small size of the circulation and its projected motion away from
 Mexico does not require tropical storm warnings or watches at this
 time. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast
 track would bring stronger winds closer to the coast, which would
 require the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Regardless of the
 winds, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of
 southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and flash
 flooding will be possible in mountainous areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/2100Z 17.4N 104.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 17.4N 104.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  15/1800Z 17.4N 104.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  16/0600Z 17.4N 104.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  16/1800Z 17.3N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  17/1800Z 17.4N 106.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  18/1800Z 17.9N 108.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  19/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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