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 740 
 WTNT45 KNHC 050850
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
 INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF STAN HAS BECOME VERY
 ILL-DEFINED.  THEREFORE... THE SYSTEM IS LOSING CHARACTERISTICS AS
 A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE
 DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING OVER VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN... AND THE
 REMNANT SURFACE LOW WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER EXIST LATER TODAY. 
 HOWEVER... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMAINING VORTICITY IN
 THE LOW TO MID LEVELS COULD LEAD TO REGENERATION JUST OFF THE
 PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST
 THIS... AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
 THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
 EVEN THOUGH STAN IS DISSIPATING AND HAS LOST ALL CORE CONVECTION...
 SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. 
 ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY...  THE MAIN
 THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH
 LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY.
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/0900Z 16.9N  97.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  12HR VT     05/1800Z 16.7N  97.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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