632 
 WTNT45 KNHC 030240
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005
 
 STAN HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETED ITS TRANSIT OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
 BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT...FOR NOW...
 THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. 
 NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION WITH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.  A PROMINENT
 UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS SITUATED OVER STAN...AND VERTICAL SHEAR
 IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ONCE THE
 CENTER MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE
 WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30 DEG C...STRENGTHENING IS HIGHLY
 LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/9.  THE FLOW SOUTH OF A MID-
 TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A
 WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. 
 THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN
 2-3 DAYS.  THERE IS...HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE
 TRACK FORECAST.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
 WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48
 HOURS...AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
 CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITHIN ROUGHLY 72
 HOURS.  THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOON ENOUGH TO
 INFLUENCE STAN'S TRACK...AND DELAY ITS LANDFALL.  THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE MODELS ALSO TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWER OVER THE
 SOUTHWEST GULF THAN THE EARLIER RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE
 GUIDANCE.  HOPEFULLY...AN ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THIS FORECAST WILL
 NOT BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0300Z 20.8N  90.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     03/1200Z 21.0N  91.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  93.3W    45 KT
  36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.7N  94.7W    55 KT
  48HR VT     05/0000Z 20.4N  95.8W    65 KT
  72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N  97.0W    55 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  98.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATED
 120HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
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