388 
 WTNT44 KNHC 060253
 TCDAT4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016
 
 Hermine is a large, occluded low that is beginning - finally - to
 spin down some.  While there is some convection associated with the
 cyclone, it is not deep and is displaced well southwest of the
 center.  Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
 that the peak winds have dropped to about 55 kt.  Given the lack of
 deep convection and little baroclinic forcing, continued weakening
 and shrinking of the cyclone's wind field is anticipated.  It is
 forecast that Hermine will dissipate in about three days.  The NHC
 intensity prediction is similar to the previous advisory and is
 based upon the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models.
 
 Hermine is moving toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt, primarily
 due to the steering induced by an upper- to mid-level cutoff low to
 its south. As Hermine merges with this low in the next day, the
 cyclone's motion will slow to a crawl.  In about two days, an
 upstream shortwave trough in the westerlies will cause Hermine to
 begin a northeastward motion until dissipation.  The NHC track
 forecast is shifted slightly southwestward, between that from the
 previous advisory and the global model consensus.
 
 The Air Force reconnaissance data as well as the Buzzards Bay and
 Montauk Point buoys have been crucial for determining the
 tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii, which have been
 contracted slightly.  The wind radii forecast is based upon the
 RVCN wind radii consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0300Z 39.6N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  06/1200Z 39.7N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  07/0000Z 39.7N  71.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  07/1200Z 39.8N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  08/0000Z 40.4N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea/Brown