111 
 WTNT44 KNHC 052042
 TCDAT4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016
 
 The satellite presentation of Hermine remains non-tropical, with
 a rather linear band of deep convection situated north and northwest
 of the estimated center.  There continues to be multiple low-level
 swirls over the inner part of the circulation.  Overall, the
 appearance of the system is gradually losing organization.  The
 advisory intensity remains at 60 kt based on earlier reconnaissance
 data and a ship report from this afternoon.  The system is forecast
 to move over SSTs of 23 to 24 deg C on Tuesday and these cooler
 waters should cause weakening.  The official intensity forecast is
 close to the model consensus and, although this guidance may not be
 very valid for a post-tropical cyclone, the NHC forecast is also
 consistent with the trends shown by the global models.  Some of
 these models, such as the ECMWF suggest that the cyclone could
 dissipate within 72 hours.
 
 Earlier aircraft center fixes and a more recent satellite-derived
 fix result in a motion estimate of 300/6 kt.  A weak mid-level
 ridge to the north of Hermine should maintain the
 west-northwestward motion overnight.  After that, the ridge breaks
 down and the cyclone is expected to become trapped in a region of
 weak steering currents.  This should result in a slow and erratic
 motion through 48 hours.  By the end of the forecast period, if the
 cyclone survives, a faster east-northeastward motion could occur
 due to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official
 track forecast is a little to the west of the previous one but
 generally to the right of the latest dynamical model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/2100Z 39.3N  69.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  06/0600Z 39.7N  70.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  06/1800Z 39.9N  71.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  07/0600Z 40.0N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  07/1800Z 40.3N  71.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  08/1800Z 42.0N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch