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 757 
 WTNT44 KNHC 300854
 TCDAT4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016
 
 Although there has been an increase in convection over the
 southeastern portion of the depression's circulation, the system is
 still being affected by westerly shear, with the low-level center
 exposed to the west of the deep convection.  Recent observations
 from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the unmanned NASA Global
 Hawk indicate that the tropical cyclone remains just below tropical
 storm strength.  The NOAA aircraft has reported peak flight level
 winds in the southeastern quadrant of 32 kt, and believable SFMR
 winds of around 30 kt.  A dropsonde from the Global Hawk reported
 33 kt surface winds, but the mean-layer wind over the lowest 150 m
 support winds closer to 30 kt.  A very recent center drop from the
 unmanned aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure is 1003 mb.
 
 The westerly shear over the depression is forecast to decrease
 somewhat during the next day or so, however dry mid-level air is
 expected to remain near and to the west of the system.  As a
 result of the marginal environment, only gradual strengthening
 is predicted during the next couple of days.  This is supported
 by the global models which do not significantly deepen the system
 until is moves over the western Atlantic and interacts with an
 upper-level trough.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from
 the previous advisory and remains near the intensity consensus
 model IVCN.
 
 The aircraft fixes show that the depression has moved westward
 since the previous advisory, and the initial motion estimate is
 275/6 kt.  The cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward, then
 northwestward tonight around a low- to mid-level ridge over
 the western Atlantic and Florida.  After that time, a deepening
 mid-latitude trough over the southeastern United States should
 cause the system to turn northeastward toward the Florida Big
 Bend region.  The dynamical models continue to agree on this
 scenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of
 the system after 36 hours, and the NHC track is near the consensus
 of the GFS and ECMWF models.  The more westward initial position has
 required a westward adjustment to the track through 24 hours, but
 otherwise, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
 advisory.
 
 Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
 be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast later today.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0900Z 23.8N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  30/1800Z 24.2N  87.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  31/0600Z 24.9N  87.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  31/1800Z 26.2N  86.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  01/0600Z 27.7N  85.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  02/0600Z 30.7N  81.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  03/0600Z 33.2N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  04/0600Z 35.5N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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