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 009 
 WTNT45 KNHC 260254
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
 
 Both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter planes investigated Erika
 and found a disorganized storm. The central pressure rose to 1006
 mb, and the strongest winds were confined to the eastern semicircle.
 The low-level center remains exposed to the north of the limited
 thunderstorm activity. Based on the current appearance on satellite
 imagery, and data from the plane, the initial intensity is
 generously kept at 35 kt.
 
 The intensity forecast continues to be highly uncertain. Erika
 has a large cyclonic envelope, and this is a favorable factor
 for the cyclone to strengthen. However, SHIPS model forecasts
 a hostile west-northwesterly shear over the cyclone and, in fact, it
 only strengthens Erika a little bit at the end of the forecast
 period. This coincides with the solution of the GFS and the ECMWF
 global models which either weaken the cyclone or show little
 change in strength. The NHC forecast follows the intensity
 consensus, and shows a modest strengthening beyond 3 days. By then,
 the cyclone is expected to be near the Bahamas where the environment
 could be a little more favorable for intensification. However, I
 will not be a surprised if Erika dissipates like Danny in the
 the northeastern Caribbean Sea where the environment is hostile.
 
 Erika is embedded within the easterly flow south of a moderate
 subtropical ridge which is covering the western Atlantic. This
 pattern will likely continue to steer Erika between the west and
 west-northwest at about 15 kt for the next 2 to 3 days. As the
 cyclone reaches the western edge of the ridge in the area of the
 Bahamas, the cyclone is then expected to decrease in forward speed.
 The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows
 very closely the multi-model consensus.
 
 Tropical storm watches and warnings have been adjusted and added for
 some of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean by the respective
 Meteorological Services.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/0300Z 16.0N  54.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  26/1200Z 16.4N  56.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  27/0000Z 17.0N  60.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  27/1200Z 17.8N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  28/0000Z 18.8N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  29/0000Z 21.0N  70.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  30/0000Z 23.0N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  31/0000Z 26.0N  78.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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