899 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 231458
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009
 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
 
 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ANDRES HAS
 CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0 AND 3.5 RESPECTIVELY. A VERY
 RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT WIND VECTOR AND
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
 HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
 ANDRES. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT
 OF THE CENTER LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
 ANDRES CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  IN THE SHORT RANGE...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS TAKE THE CENTER INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND
 MEXICO.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE
 PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CENTER
 OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ANDRES
 COULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
 HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION.  IN
 THE LONGER RANGE...THE HWRF HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD AND
 SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THIS SHIFT HAS
 CAUSED THE CONSENSUS TO ALSO MOVE EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE 2-5 DAY TIME
 FRAME...BUT IS STILL SOUTHWEST OF THE CONSENSUS.  
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC SINCE THERE ARE LARGE
 UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LAND INTERACTION.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
 SUGGESTS LITTLE...IF ANY...STRENGHTENING...HOWEVER THE NHC
 FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ANDRES TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN
 12 HOURS.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
 OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND STEADY
 WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 18.0N 104.4W    60 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 19.4N 105.6W    65 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 20.8N 107.1W    65 KT
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 21.8N 108.7W    60 KT
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N 110.2W    50 KT
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 23.3N 113.2W    30 KT
  96HR VT     27/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     28/1200Z 23.5N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN