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 797 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 040835
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013
 100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013
  
 SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA REACHED THE
 COAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO ROUGHLY AROUND 0500
 UTC...AND THE CYCLONE WAS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 35-KT
 WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT THAT TIME. 
 NOW THAT THE CENTER AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE MOVED
 INLAND...SONIA IS PROBABLY NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-
 STORM-FORCE WINDS...AND IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON
 THIS ADVISORY.  RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD
 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND VERY STRONG SHEAR. 
 EVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST PROVIDES A 12-HOUR REMNANT LOW
 POSITION...SONIA COULD VERY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME AS
 SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
 SONIA WAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 15-20 KT BEFORE
 IT REACHED LAND...BUT IT IS NOW SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH AN
 ESTIMATED MOTION OF 030/8 KT.  AN EVEN SLOWER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
 MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
 BECOMING BLOCKED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
 EVEN THOUGH SONIA IS WEAKENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
 POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND
 SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE DAY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/0900Z 24.6N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  12H  04/1800Z 25.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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