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 203 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 130833
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
 
 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E remains poorly organized.  Shortwave
 IR and microwave imagery from a 0315 UTC SSMI-S pass indicate that
 the low-level center remains exposed to the east of a small area of
 deep convection.  The estimated initial motion is 110/06, however
 this is somewhat uncertain due to the the poor organization of the
 depression and the lack of visible imagery.  Regardless, the track
 forecast reasoning is generally unchanged and a steady east-
 southeastward motion toward the larger Hurricane Odile is expected
 until the depression dissipates in 24 to 36 hours.
 
 The intensity has been held at 30 kt based on the most recent Dvorak
 classification from TAFB.  Due to its close proximity to the much
 stronger circulation of Odile, the depression is embedded within an
 unfavorable environment consisting of increasing vertical wind shear
 and descending, dry air.  The environment should become more
 unfavorable as the two tropical cyclones draw nearer, ultimately
 causing Sixteen-E to become a remnant low before being stretched out
 into a trough by the low-level flow of Odile.  Although the models
 all forecast the circulation of Sixteen-E to dissipate within 36
 hours, some of the intensity guidance appears to forecast
 strengthening for the next several days.  This is because the vortex
 tracker follows a remnant feature that wraps around Odile, long
 after the dissipation of the depression's surface circulation.
 Consequently, the official forecast has not been changed
 significantly and is below most of the guidance.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/0900Z 16.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  13/1800Z 16.2N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  14/0600Z 15.8N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky/Brennan
 
 
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