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 444 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 202008
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT THU OCT 20 2005
  
 A 20/1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION
 WITH NO DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 25
 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
 WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO BROADEN AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED... WHILE
 CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED.
 AS SUCH... TD-16E IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
 REMNANT LOW... AND THIS WILL BE FINAL ADVISORY... PART DEUX... ON
 THIS SYSTEM.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS IS 285/08. THE REMANT LOW IS EXPECTED
 TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THE REMAINDER OF ITS
 EXISTENCE... WHICH MAY COME TO A DEMISE SOONER THAN WHAT IS
 INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
 AND THE SHALLOW BAM. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AN
 IDENTIFIABLE ENTITY BY 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
 TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED IN
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. THESE ADVERSE
 CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT OR AT LEAST INHIBIT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
 ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/2100Z 12.8N 119.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.0N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     21/1800Z 13.2N 121.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     22/0600Z 13.4N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     22/1800Z 13.5N 123.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     23/1800Z 13.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     24/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING REM LOW
 120HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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