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 323 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 201447
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005
 
 IT CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER OF
 CIRCULATION.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS
 AND NO DOMINANT CENTER.  THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
 CONTINUITY AS MUCH AS ANYTHING ELSE...AND IS WELL TO THE
 SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  THE
 25-KNOT CURRENT INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING AN AREA
 OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY
 DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE SYSTEM...MAKES STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY. 
 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATE IN THE
 PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNLESS A DEFINITE CENTER IS IDENTIFIED
 SOON...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED...AGAIN...LATER TODAY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10 IS A CRUDE ESTIMATE...AT BEST.  THE
 TROUGH ALONG 130W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD.  IF SIXTEEN-E WERE
 A DEEP AND STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS TROUGH WOULD BRING ABOUT
 A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER THE DEPRESSION IS VERY
 WEAK...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT RESPOND TO DEEP-LAYER STEERING.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND IS
 SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACK.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/1500Z 12.6N 118.3W    25 KT
  12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.0N 119.7W    25 KT
  24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.5N 121.1W    25 KT
  36HR VT     22/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W    25 KT
  48HR VT     22/1200Z 14.2N 122.5W    25 KT
  72HR VT     23/1200Z 14.5N 123.5W    25 KT
  96HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N 124.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 
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