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 491 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 200811
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005
  
 IT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION THAT
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IT IS EVEN HARDER TO
 FIND IT NOW. IT APPEARS THAT CENTER WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING IS WELL
 REMOVED FROM THE VERY LIMITED CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
 INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND THE
 MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS.  
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST
 NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SEEMS THAT THE CHANCES
 FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE DIMINISHING SINCE THE CONVECTION IS
 BECOMING MORE AND MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
 HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING THE SAME PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AT
 THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY COULD BE HELPFUL IN
 CLARIFYING IF WE HAVE A DEPRESSION OR NOT.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0900Z 12.6N 117.1W    25 KT
  12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.0N 118.5W    25 KT
  24HR VT     21/0600Z 13.5N 120.0W    25 KT
  36HR VT     21/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W    35 KT
  48HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT
  72HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 122.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     24/0600Z 15.5N 123.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 124.0W    35 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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