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 865 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 200245
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2005
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING AND IS
 DIFFICULT TO FIND ON THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY.
 IT IS TEMPTING TO POSITION THE CENTER IN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL
 BUT IT IS BELIEVED THAT THIS SWIRL IS ROTATING INSIDE THE LARGER
 CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IDEA IS PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY A
 TRMM MICROWAVE PASS A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE TRMM PASS WAS FAR FROM
 CONCLUSIVE.  WHEREVER THE EXACT POSITION... THE THUNDERSTORMS IN
 THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF 16-E ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH NO
 CONVECTION WITHIN AT LEAST 75 NM OF THE CENTER.  T-NUMBERS ARE
 FALLING FROM SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
 25 KT.
 
 THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN A BIT OF AN ENIGMA BY NOT BEING ABLE TO
 MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE
 MOST LIKELY CULPRIT IS DRY AIR SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES...
 PROBABLY SUPRESSING CONVECTION DESPITE MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
 AND WARM SSTS. SHIPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
 HUMIDITY WHICH COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM INTENSITY
 IN A DAY OR TWO WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE
 DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TONIGHT.. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF
 SHIPS WERE INCORRECT AND THE CYCLONE BECAME A REMNANT LOW IN THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/9. THERE ARE NO
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST. A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
 STEER THE CYCLONE A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AT
 EXTENDED RANGES...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
 INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
 RIDGE...ALLOWING A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE
 NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
 FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0300Z 12.4N 115.9W    25 KT
  12HR VT     20/1200Z 12.5N 117.3W    25 KT
  24HR VT     21/0000Z 12.9N 119.0W    30 KT
  36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.2N 120.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     22/0000Z 13.5N 121.0W    35 KT
  72HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     24/0000Z 15.0N 122.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N 123.5W    35 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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