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 152 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 191425
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT WED OCT 19 2005
 
 THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS
 ACQUIRED ENOUGH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE RE-CLASSIFIED AS A
 TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED AGAIN. 
 MY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
 WITH A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIRA/NESDIS.
 THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
 ENVIRONMENT...SO ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/9.  A MID-LEVEL
 ANTICYCLONE...THAT IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF SIXTEEN-E...IS
 LIKELY TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN 3-5 DAYS...THE
 SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
 THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY BECOME VERY WEAK BY THAT TIME. 
 THUS...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/1500Z 12.2N 113.6W    25 KT
  12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.3N 115.0W    25 KT
  24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W    25 KT
  36HR VT     21/0000Z 12.7N 118.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     21/1200Z 13.2N 119.8W    35 KT
  72HR VT     22/1200Z 14.0N 121.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     23/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W    30 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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