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 780 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 172023
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT MON OCT 17 2005
 
 AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM AROUND 1330Z...SUGGESTED THAT THE
 DEPRESSION WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS
 MORNING'S ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEARTH OF DEEP CONVECTION
 IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN
 TODAY.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB
 RESPECTIVELY AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM
 CONSISTS MAINLY OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...LOW CLOUD
 SWIRL...WITH LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
 ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. 
 VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
 TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IMPLIES THE
 POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE IS
 EMBEDDED IN A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID-
 TROPOSPHERE.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
 CIRCULATION...ARGUES AGAINST RE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST CALLS FOR DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS. 
 HOWEVER UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS
 NEAR/OVER THE CENTER... ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED QUITE
 SOON.
 
 INITIAL MOTION...270/8...IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
 FORECAST REASONING.  A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE IS LIKELY TO
 REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4
 DAYS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD A STEERING FLOW THAT
 WILL CARRY THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...MAINLY WESTWARD.  THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY A
 SHADE FASTER.  
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/2100Z 12.2N 107.0W    25 KT
  12HR VT     18/0600Z 12.2N 108.2W    25 KT
  24HR VT     18/1800Z 12.2N 110.0W    25 KT
  36HR VT     19/0600Z 12.1N 111.8W    25 KT
  48HR VT     19/1800Z 12.0N 113.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     20/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     21/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
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