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 653 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 171426
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005
 
 SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON
 THE DEPRESSION.  WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED
 TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS
 ARE DOWN TO 1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...HENCE THE
 CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
 NEIGHBORING ITCZ IS REMARKABLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH
 INDICATES A LARGE-SCALE STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS.  ALTHOUGH
 THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT
 SEVERAL DAYS...THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...SMALL CIRCULATION
 SIZE...AND DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST
 REGENERATION.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A
 REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS...BUT UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION MAKES A
 SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK... DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER.
 
 THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS RATHER EASY TO
 TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 270/07.  A
 LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF
 THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD
 MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...IS PREDICTED. 
 THIS IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
 ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/1500Z 12.1N 106.2W    25 KT
  12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.1N 107.3W    25 KT
  24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.0N 108.9W    25 KT
  36HR VT     19/0000Z 12.0N 110.5W    25 KT
  48HR VT     19/1200Z 12.0N 112.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     20/1200Z 12.0N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     21/1200Z 12.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 $$
 
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