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 611 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 170925
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005
  
 MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STRIPPED AWAY ALL THE
 DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE
 PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
 CENTER... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS
 T2.0/30 KT FROM ALL 3 AGENCIES. GIVEN THE VERY TIGHT SWIRL NOTED IN
 NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
 BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 270/07. TD-16E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN
 A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
 NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
 MOVING IN A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR IS FORECAST
 TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST... SO ANY BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
 THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME NORTHWARD JUMPS OR
 WOBBLES IN THE TRACK.
 
 THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY 36
 HOURS... WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE
 CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 27.5C TO 28C SSTS. HOWEVER... THE MID-LEVEL
 MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 38 PERCENT
 RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS. THIS EXTREMELY
 DRY ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST OR EVEN
 REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEYOND 24 HOURS.... WHICH WOULD
 RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMANT LOW.
 
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0900Z 12.0N 105.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     17/1800Z 12.0N 106.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.0N 108.0W    30 KT
  36HR VT     18/1800Z 11.7N 109.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N 111.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     20/0600Z 11.5N 114.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     21/0600Z 11.5N 118.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     22/0600Z 12.5N 121.5W    35 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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