Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 202 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 170302
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005
  
 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
 HAD INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMPROVED
 CONVECTIVE BANDING... AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C OVER THE
 WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM... SUPPORTED SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL CLASSIFYING AGENCIES.  HOWEVER...
 RECENT SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION
 CENTER IS SHEARED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BANDING
 FEATURE... AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
 CONSIDERABLY.  THEREFORE... BASED ON THE SHORT TERM CLOUD PATTERN
 CHANGES... WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL AGREE ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
 THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
 MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC
 ENVIRONMENT.  IN FACT... THE GFDL FORECASTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
 BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
 SHIPS MODEL.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
 EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE
 TO THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND
 SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND
 SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
 CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
 TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT FASTER BEYOND
 36 HOURS TO CONFORM WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0300Z 12.2N 104.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     17/1200Z 12.3N 105.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     18/0000Z 12.2N 107.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     18/1200Z 11.9N 108.3W    40 KT
  48HR VT     19/0000Z 11.5N 109.8W    40 KT
  72HR VT     20/0000Z 11.0N 113.1W    45 KT
  96HR VT     21/0000Z 11.5N 116.5W    45 KT
 120HR VT     22/0000Z 12.5N 119.5W    40 KT
  
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for SIXTEEN-E

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman