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 706 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 162032
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
 STRUGGLING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
 LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
 EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHILE THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
 DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM SAB AND
 AFWA AND 2.0 FROM TAFB. GIVEN THE SHEARING PATTERN...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS A CONSERVATIVE 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 AND IS NOW 290/6. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED
 LITTLE...IN THAT THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL
 THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 18-24 HOURS...
 THEN SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 5
 DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
 NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD TO THE WEST AND
 SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH OF TD-16E SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY
 SOUTH OF DUE WEST BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
 ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
 MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BASED ON
 AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION...AND LESS OF A TURN TO THE
 WEST-SOUTHWEST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 27C-28C SSTS THROUGH THE
 FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT IS
 EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH
 THE END OF THE FORECAST. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
 DISCUSSION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
 SHIPS GUIDANCE...CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36
 HOURS. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM
 STATUS...IT COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST
 A LITTLE BIT.
  
 FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/2100Z 11.8N 104.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     17/0600Z 11.9N 104.8W    30 KT
  24HR VT     17/1800Z 11.9N 105.8W    30 KT
  36HR VT     18/0600Z 11.7N 107.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     18/1800Z 11.5N 108.0W    35 KT
  72HR VT     19/1800Z 11.0N 110.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     20/1800Z 11.0N 113.8W    40 KT
 120HR VT     21/1800Z 11.5N 117.0W    40 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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