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 022 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 161436
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005
  
 A 0819 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TD-16E
 WAS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS
 ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY 
 WHICH SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE
 SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS
 INDICATIVE OF CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE
 2.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 2.5 FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AT 280/5...AND PERHAPS
 EVEN FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN INDICATED HERE. A LARGE AND STRONG
 DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
 NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
 REACH ITS MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY FILL
 AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
 ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
 NORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
 OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
 TD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR
 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
 AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE
 FIRST 24 HOURS IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION
 OF THE CURRENT MOTION. 
 
 THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 5
 DAYS. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 22 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
 DECREASE TO 15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND TO 10-15 KT THROUGH DAY 5.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS
 FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER SINCE
 THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS...IT 
 COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST A LITTLE BIT. 
 
 FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/1500Z 11.3N 103.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     17/0000Z 11.4N 103.8W    30 KT
  24HR VT     17/1200Z 11.4N 104.6W    30 KT
  36HR VT     18/0000Z 11.1N 105.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     18/1200Z 10.7N 106.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     19/1200Z 10.0N 109.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     20/1200Z 10.0N 112.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     21/1200Z 10.0N 116.0W    40 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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