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 414 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 160246
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005
  
 VISIBLE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL CIRCULATION
 CENTER JUST BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
 DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 25 KT...AS DOES
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TO
 HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS
 MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE MODERATE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
 THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
 WEAKENING TREND...BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS...WITH THE DEPRESSION
 BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY WEAK
 LOW/MID-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 AFTERWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST
 TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF  MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
 FORWARD MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY BUT WILL REFLECT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 48
 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW MEAN BAM.
   
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0300Z 11.0N 102.2W    25 KT
  12HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 102.7W    25 KT
  24HR VT     17/0000Z 11.0N 103.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     17/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     18/0000Z 10.7N 104.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     19/0000Z 10.3N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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