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 962 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 152034
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION...LITTLE DEEP
 CONVECTION AND APPEARS TO BE ATTACHED TO THE INTERTROPICAL
 CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS BUT IT
 IS STILL ON A WEAKENING TREND. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
 DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. 
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
 TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE OR THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
 SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
 DERIVED FROM MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS BASICALLY
 WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/2100Z 11.0N 101.5W    25 KT
  12HR VT     16/0600Z 11.0N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     16/1800Z 11.0N 102.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     17/0600Z 11.0N 103.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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