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 993 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 151425
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005
  
 THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION AND LITTLE DEEP
 CONVECTION. IN FACT...THERE WAS NOT MUCH TO BEGIN WITH. T-NUMBERS
 HAVE COME DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25
 KNOTS. LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS NO STRONG WINDS AND NO CIRCULATION.
 BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUITY...I AM FORECASTING
 A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAKENING
 TREND OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE
 SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DEPRESSION
 COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON.   
 
 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
 TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD.
 THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM
 MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
 THE CYCLONE.    
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/1500Z 11.0N 101.5W    25 KT
  12HR VT     16/0000Z 11.0N 101.5W    25 KT
  24HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 102.0W    25 KT
  36HR VT     17/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     17/1200Z 11.0N 104.0W    35 KT
  72HR VT     18/1200Z 11.0N 105.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     19/1200Z 11.0N 107.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     20/1200Z 11.0N 108.5W    35 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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