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 180 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150830
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005
  
 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS
 DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
 REMAINING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND
 AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THERE IS POOR TO FAIR
 CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/2.  THE DEPRESSION IS
 ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE AREA
 NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-125W.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT
 THIS TROUGH SHOULD FILL STARTING IN ABOUT 48-72 HR...AND THE RIDGE
 SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS MEANS IN THE LONGER
 TERM THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TAKE A WESTWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER...THINGS
 ARE LESS CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM.  THE GFDL...BAMD...AND BAMM CALL
 FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
 THE TROUGH.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
 MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD.  THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR
 LITTLE MOTION AS THE SYSTEM GETS STRETCHED ALONG THE ITCZ.  GIVEN
 THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW MOTION
 FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
 NORTH IN DEFERENCE TO THE TROUGH AND THE GFDL FORECAST.
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE
 EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST SOUTHERLY
 TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
 ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO HOW MUCH.  THE GFS FORECAST A BURST OF
 SHEAR IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE TO VALUES THAT WOULD LET
 THE CYCLONE STRENGTHEN.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CANADIAN FORECASTS
 A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH STRONGER SHEAR AND A LONGER
 TIME BEFORE IT DECREASES.  THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE
 DEPRESSION AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL SEEN NEARBY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
 MAY ALSO BE INHIBITING FACTORS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS
 BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE LESS BULLISH SHIPS MODEL RATHER THAN
 LEANING TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL.  WHILE THE FORECAST
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AT 96-120 HR...IT IS STILL A
 LITTLE BELOW WHAT SHIPS IS FORECASTING.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0900Z 11.0N 101.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/1800Z 11.1N 102.1W    30 KT
  24HR VT     16/0600Z 11.1N 102.8W    35 KT
  36HR VT     16/1800Z 11.2N 103.4W    35 KT
  48HR VT     17/0600Z 11.3N 104.1W    40 KT
  72HR VT     18/0600Z 11.5N 105.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N 107.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     20/0600Z 11.5N 108.5W    45 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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