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 905 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150259
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2005
  
 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
 ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
 ABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
 HAVE ALSO IMPROVED... AS HAVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TAFB
 REPORTED A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT WITH A DATA
 T-NUMBER OF T2.4/35 KT... AND THE 3HR ODT AVERAGE WAS T2.9/44 KT
 WITH A PEAK RAW ODT VALUE OF T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE
 WARMED IN THE CURVED BAND ON THE WEST SIDE SINCE 00Z... SO THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY...OR POSSIBLY A SLOW DRIFT
 TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A MOTION
 BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFDL TAKES THE DEPRESSION
 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY AND INTENSIFIES IT INTO AN 81-KT
 HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM
 RELATIVELY WEAK AND EVEN DISSIPATE IT BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT
 STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
 THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS
 FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED
 BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
 AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY... THE GFDL IS QUITE ROBUST IN INTENSIFYING
 THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS BEEN
 TRENDING TOWARD LESSER INTENSIFICATION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
 SINCE 00Z YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS FORECASTING A 95-KT HURRICANE.
 GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE... AND THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
 SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN WHICH THE
 CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR VERY
 MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY
 MODEL WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 44 KT BY 96 HOURS. 
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 11.0N 101.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 11.0N 101.9W    30 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 11.0N 102.6W    35 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 103.2W    35 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 11.0N 103.9W    40 KT
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 11.0N 105.3W    40 KT
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 11.0N 106.6W    40 KT
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 11.0N 108.0W    40 KT
  
 $$
 
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