Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 738 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 260218
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2004
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM
 GUASAVE MEXICO INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E HAS CHANGED
 LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CYCLONE REMAINS STRONGLY
 SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED IN
 THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON
 A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM BOTH
 TAFB AND SAB...AND A 29-KT WESTERLY WIND REPORT AT 26/00Z FROM SHIP
 ZCDF8 LOCATED ABOUT 95 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER IN A NON-CONVECTIVE
 REGION. WHILE IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT HIGHER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE
 STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...THE DEPRESSION IS NOT BEING
 UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
 RATHER LOW WITH MAZATLAN REPORTING 1005.6 MB AT 25/2343Z. ALSO...
 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED BASED ON REPORTS FROM SHIP NJBZ.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/16. TD-16E IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
 NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 6H...AND THEN
 TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE GETS PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING
 DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION...AND WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MOVING
 ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS
 STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE
 CURRENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AS THE SYSTEM
 MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES...FORECAST POINTS AT 24 AND 36 HOURS
 WERE INCLUDED TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
 SINCE SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
 PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND INTO TEXAS
 AND OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
  
 LITTLE TIME REMAINS FOR ANY STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE
 GUASAVE RADAR INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT
 90 NMI EAST OF LA PAZ MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TRACK OF THE
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IF THE TWO BECOME SUPERIMPOSED IN THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BURST OF STRONG
 CONVECTION DEVELOP THAT COULD POSSIBLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO
 REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STORM STRENGTH JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
 
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/0300Z 24.6N 108.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     26/1200Z 27.1N 106.9W    30 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     27/0000Z 30.4N 104.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
  36HR VT     27/1200Z 34.1N 100.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
  48HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
  
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for SIXTEEN-E

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman