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 719 
 WTNT41 KNHC 150840
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
 500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
 
 THE DEPRESSION BASICALLY CONSISTS OF TWO CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION
 THAT ARE RATHER DISTANT FROM THE APPARENT CENTER.  IT IS DIFFICULT
 TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER IS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE VERY
 CLOSE TO THE HONDURAS COAST.  THE SYSTEM HAS EFFECTIVELY AVOIDED
 BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT OVERNIGHT...AND SINCE THE SATELLITE
 CLASSIFICATIONS HAVEN'T CHANGED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
 25 KT.  AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM DOESN'T MOVE OVER LAND...ATMOSPHERIC
 AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING.  THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
 BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPEND LESS TIME OVER WATER. 
 HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION WERE TO TAKE A TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY
 SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT MAY NEVER BECOME A TROPICAL
 STORM AT ALL.
 
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5.  A LARGE RIDGE
 BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF
 MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OR
 WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN
 GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
 TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE FOR THE
 ENSUING NHC FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE GUIDANCE HAS
 GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0900Z 16.0N  84.2W    25 KT
  12HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  85.1W    30 KT
  24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  86.5W    35 KT
  36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.9N  87.6W    35 KT
  48HR VT     17/0600Z 15.7N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
  
 
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