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 615 
 WTNT41 KNHC 142052
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
  
 CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING
 THE DAY TODAY.  HOWEVER...A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
 RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT
 HAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
 APPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGEST
 THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS.  FOR THE
 TIME BEING...WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC
 ENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IT IS
 CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE
 MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.  REGARDLESS...
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...AND NO MORE THAN AROUND
 25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.
  
 WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER
 AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
 LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
 STATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER
 INLAND OVER HONDURAS...WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
 THE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE
 CENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE NEW
 TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING.  A
 TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
 SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WHILE A TRACK
 SOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER.
 SINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A
 LITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER...THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER
 THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/2100Z 15.7N  83.6W    25 KT
  12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.9N  84.3W    30 KT
  24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.1N  85.3W    40 KT
  36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.1N  86.7W    45 KT
  48HR VT     16/1800Z 15.9N  88.1W    45 KT
  72HR VT     17/1800Z 15.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
  
 
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