320 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 030217
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT MON AUG 02 2004
  
 THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KT WITH SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
 CONVECTION AND T NUMBERS OF 2.0/2.0/1.5 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC.  THE
 VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT
 48 HOURS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  THE VERTICAL
 SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AFTER 72 HOURS AND THIS IS
 REFLECTED BY A WEAKENING TREND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT
 TIME.
  
 A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
 DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST TO
 WESTWARD AND ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS A
 LITTLE FASTER AFTER 48 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
 GUIDANCE MODELS.
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0300Z 12.8N 132.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     03/1200Z 13.4N 133.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     04/0000Z 14.6N 135.3W    40 KT
  36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.9N 137.5W    45 KT
  48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N 140.0W    40 KT
  72HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N 144.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 150.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N 156.0W    25 KT
  
  
 $$