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 306 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 062044
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
 200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014
 
 Although the tropical cyclone has very little deep convection
 remaining, a recent ASCAT overpass indicated that the system had
 not weakened as much as earlier estimated.  Data from that pass
 showed that the current intensity is about 45 kt.  Water vapor
 imagery shows quite a bit of southwesterly shear affecting Simon at
 this time, and dynamical models show the shear becoming even
 stronger within a day or two.  The official intensity forecast is
 above most of the numerical guidance and shows the system
 degenerating into a remnant low in 24 hours.  However, since the
 ASCAT data revealed a slightly larger and stronger cyclone, and
 considering the uncertainties in the forecast track, it is prudent
 to issue a tropical storm watch for a portion of the west coast of
 the Baja peninsula at this time.
 
 The motion continues about the same as before, or 010/6 kt.  There
 is little change to the track forecast or reasoning.  Simon is
 moving around the northwestern periphery of a mid-level high
 pressure area.  An approaching shortwave trough should cause the
 tropical cyclone or its remnant low to move north-northeastward
 over the next couple of days.  The official track forecast is a
 blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, with the former
 guidance farther north and the latter guidance farther south.
 
 Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
 rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
 with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
 California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
 Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
 the next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local
 weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/2100Z 25.8N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  07/0600Z 26.8N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  07/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  08/0600Z 29.0N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  08/1800Z 30.2N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  09/1800Z 32.0N 112.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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